Batman said business was so-so, and King Kong beat his chest in agreement. But neither could predict that it would improve. Gotham’s caped crusader and his muscular ape neighbour could only hope. As with Times Square’s superhero-themed visitor-photography business last week, so it is with the US tourism business at large.
The effect of economic and political turbulence on the number of foreign visitors coming to the US is for now hard to define. But both – whether through tariffs, currency exchange chaos, or fears over political ill-winds – are sending chills through the $2.36tn business, the world’s most powerful travel and tourism market.
Warnings that international tourism to the US could be hit by Donald Trump’s effort to re-engineer economic and political relations with the rest of the world are slowly emerging.
The federal government’s National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures last week showing visits to the US from overseas fell 11.6% in March compared with the same month last year. According to the data released on Tuesday, international arrivals from China were down nearly 1%. Wolfgang Georg Arlt, the CEO of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute, called it the “Trump Slump”.
The Delta Air Lines CEO, Ed Bastian, also said the company would not expand flying in the second half of the year because of disappointing bookings amid Trump’s unpredictable trade policies after cutting its first-quarter earnings outlook, citing weaker-than-expected corporate and leisure travel demand.
“In the last six weeks, we’ve seen a corresponding reduction in broad consumer confidence and corporate confidence,” Bastian told CNBC, adding things “really started to slow” in mid-February.
The Las Vegas Visitors and Convention Authority said last week it was projecting a 5% decline in room tax revenue for its upcoming budget – a decline that may reflect Trump’s trade disputes with Canada and Mexico. Those countries account for 2.6 million visitors to sin city, or half of international travel trade.
LVCVA’s president, Steve Hill, warned at a budget meeting that short-term projected declines do not make a trend, “although we do expect that this is the start of a decline in international visitation. At some level, the conversation around the tariffs has also alienated some of our potential visitors.”
The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics, which late last year projected the US would have nearly 9% more international arrivals this year, along with a 16% increase in spending, revised its annual outlook last week to predict a 9.4% decline in arrivals.
The company’s Geena Bevenour said in an email statement that the revised forecast represented “a substantial setback” and eclipsed “the US downside scenario we released in late-February, reflecting a more contentious context for inbound travel and more severe tariff announcements than previously expected.”
On the upside, a weakening dollar against sterling, the euro, Japanese yen and Swiss franc could make travel to the US more attractive. Despite the variables, New York this week was full of international visitors, many on Easter break, and others from further afield.
A couple from Scotland, who offered their names as James and Zoe, were waiting to board the Staten Island ferry with their two children on Thursday afternoon, and said they weren’t fazed about tariffs or anti-European rhetoric from the White House. Nor had they encountered elevated difficulties at immigration at JFK – aside from the long queues.
Notwithstanding their advance booking, the couple said they would not hesitate to return – and had booked a holiday in Florida for next year. “I can see both sides, from a right and left perspective on tariffs and and the US wanting to put its house in order first.”
A couple from Belgium, Dave and Gwen Desmet, returning from a boat trip to the Statue of Liberty, said they had been apprehensive at immigration but encountered no problems. But they said that if the trip had not already been booked, they would have waited to better understand the reality of the impact of Trump’s upheavals.
“There’s more anxiety,” said Gwen, who said she had advised her son to delete an essay about Donald Trump on his laptop, adding that she was alarmed by changes to US government policy around diversity and gender.
Her daughter had worried that it was “not a good time to go to New York”. But her husband, Dave, reasoned that media was “playing a big role” in stirring anxiety and “creating negativity”.
Last week, China issued warnings for citizens considering travelling or studying in the US. China’s ministry of culture and tourism cited the “deterioration of China-US economic and trade relations and the domestic security situation in the United States”.
American Ring Travel, a tour operator based in California, offers carbon-neutral bus tours of the US that often attract eco-conscious travelers from Europe, said bookings from Germany flattened starting in January after Elon Musk threw his support behind a far-right political party in that country’s federal election.
Many travel agents say it may be too early to tell if, beyond visitors from Canada, the US will see its post-Covid gains in foreign tourism wiped out or even reversed.
Later this month, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) will release new figures on international travel. Global hotel chains like Hilton Worldwide are seeing share price declines.
One high-end travel agent, accustomed to arranging international White Lotus-style luxury holidays for wealthy clients, said he had not seen any changes – yet. But it was still early days. “I think we’re going to feel it soon. People aren’t exhausted yet. But they’re clearly stressed – and will be, especially if their disposable income gets hit,” they said.
