It’s time for the
grand finale. As PSG and
Inter
prepare to face off in Munich, we look ahead to Saturday’s huge
game with our UEFA Champions League final prediction and
preview.
PSG vs
Inter Stats: The Key Insights
- Paris Saint-Germain are the favourites to win the UEFA
Champions League for the first time in their history, with the Opta
supercomputer giving them a 56.6% probability of lifting the
trophy. - This is the first ever competitive meeting between PSG and
Inter, and is only the second European Cup/Champions League final
between a French and Italian side. - While PSG are appearing in their second European Cup/Champions
League final, this is Inter’s seventh appearance in the showpiece
match.
The eyes of the footballing world will be on the Allianz Arena
in Munich on Saturday as Paris
Saint-Germain and Inter
Milan go head-to-head for European glory.
Both have been Champions League runners-up in the last five
years: PSG lost to Bayern Munich in 2020, while Inter were defeated
by Manchester City in 2023.
Many were hoping for a thrill-a-minute clash between PSG and
Barcelona,
but this encounter still promises to be a thriller given the role
Inter played in their exciting semi-final with Hansi Flick’s
side.
PSG have arguably been Europe’s best performers this season.
Luis Enrique’s team are in the hunt for a treble, having won the
Ligue 1
title while they also claimed the Coupe de France last weekend.
Of teams in Europe’s top five leagues, only Barcelona (174) have
scored more goals across all competitions than PSG (147), and it is
only the Blaugrana who can boast a higher expected
goals (xG) figure over the course of the 2024-25 campaign
(145.3 to PSG’s 142.5).
PSG top the charts for shots (1,074), shots on target (450) and
big chances (280), while Manchester City (2,239) are the only team
to have had more touches in the opposition box than the Parisians
(2,207).
Luis Enrique won the Champions League with Barcelona in 2015,
and is looking to become the sixth manager to win the trophy with
two different clubs, along with Carlo Ancelotti (Milan, Real
Madrid), Ottmar Hitzfeld (Borussia Dortmund, Bayern), Jupp Heynckes
(Real Madrid, Bayern Munich), José Mourinho (Porto and Inter) and
Pep Guardiola (Barcelona and Man City).
Indeed, that success with Barça a decade ago came as part of a
treble, and Luis Enrique could become just the second coach, after
Guardiola, to win a treble made up of the Champions League, a major
domestic trophy and league title, with two different teams.
A good omen for PSG? When their Spanish coach won the treble 10
years ago, his Barça team beat an Italian side (Juventus) in the
final.
This season has seen PSG both win their most games (10) and
score their most goals (33) in a single major European campaign,
though there are of course now more games in the competition since
its revamp this season, with PSG having to compete in a two-legged
knockout play-off against Brest following a slightly bumpy expanded
league phase.
They have also registered their most shots per game (18.6) in a
Champions League season since 2003-04, when Opta began recording
such data.
But as they proved in their thrilling semi-final victory over
Barça, Inter are no pushovers.
Simone Inzaghi might have let the shackles off in those two legs
against their La Liga opponents, but Inter’s success in the
Champions League this term has largely been built on solid
foundations. They have kept eight clean sheets, more than any other
team, conceding only 11 goals (including one own goal), six of
which came across that two-legged semi-final.
Integral to their defensive solidity has been the performances
of goalkeeper Yann
Sommer.
Based on the quality of shots on target faced (using
xGOT), Sommer has prevented more goals than any other
goalkeeper in the Champions League this season (+5.9 – 10 goals
conceded from 15.9 xG on target faced, excluding own goals).
Sommer leads the way in the Champions League this season of
goalkeepers for clean sheets (seven). Only Thibaut Courtois (52)
and Emiliano Martínez (49) have registered more saves in the
competition this season than the Switzerland international
(48).
Their goalkeeper’s reliability has certainly been a crucial
factor for Inter, who have conceded a tournament-high 214 shots.
That said, their 17.3 expected goals against shows they are, in the
main, giving up low-quality opportunities. Indeed, the average xG
of the shots Inter have faced is just 0.08.
Ahead of Sommer, veteran campaigner Francesco
Acerbi has more than played his part.
Acerbi – who scored Inter’s crucial late equaliser in the
semi-final against Barcelona – could be the fourth-oldest outfield
player to start a Champions League final (37 years, 110 days),
behind Paolo Maldini for Milan in 2007 (38 years, 331 days), Lothar
Matthäus for Bayern in 1999 (38 years, 66 days) and Ryan Giggs for
Manchester United in 2011 (37 years, 180 days).
Then there is flying wing-back Denzel
Dumfries, who was directly involved in five goals across the
semi-final legs against Barça (two goals, three assists), as many
goal contributions as in his 51 previous appearances in Europe.
Experience has been key for Inzaghi. Only Atlético Madrid
(43.5%) have handed a higher share of minutes to players aged 30+
in the Champions League this season than Inter (43.3%), whose 6,151
collective minutes by players aged 30+ is the most by a team since
Juventus in 2016-17 (6,186). All of the 1,350 minutes PSG have
given to players aged 30 or over have been accounted for by just
one player: Marquinhos.
It has certainly worked for the Serie A side.
Inter have trailed for just 1.2% of their Champions League matches
this season, falling behind in only three games but never for more
than 370 seconds in any of them – 285 seconds against Bayer
Leverkusen, 370 against Bayern and 343 against Barcelona. They have
also spent the highest percentage of their time winning
(50.8%).
Not that it has been all about gritty defending and grinding out
results.
Inter have scored 26 Champions League goals this season; their
joint most ever in a major European season, also scoring 26 in
2002-03.
They have scored two or more goals in all six knockout games and
could be the third side to score 2+ goals in every knockout game
including the final in a season, along with Real Madrid in 1959-60
(seven games) and Milan in 1993-94 (two games).
Two of Europe’s in-form forwards will be vying to steal the
headlines.
It has been an incredible campaign for Ousmane
Dembélé, who has been directly involved in 12 Champions League
goals this season (eight goals, four assists); the most by a PSG
player in a single season, while only Zlatan Ibrahimović in 2013-14
(10) has scored more times in a single edition of the
competition.
Lautaro Martínez, meanwhile, has scored in the last 16,
quarter-finals and semi-finals. Only five players have scored in
those stages plus the final in one season – Frank Lampard in
2007-08, Diego Milito in 2009-10, Lionel Messi in 2010-11,
Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013-14 and Sadio Mané in 2017-18.
The Argentine is also aiming to become the first Inter player to
score 10 goals in a major European season, needing just one more to
do so.
This will be only the second European Cup/Champions League final
between an Italian and a French side, after Marseille beat Milan
1-0 in 1993. That remains the only time a French side has ever won
the trophy. Incidentally, that final was also held in Munich.
In fact, this will be the fifth European Cup/Champions League
final to be held in Munich. The victors in each of the previous
four were winning the trophy for the very first time, a run PSG are
seeking to continue (Nottingham Forest in 1979, Marseille in 1993,
Dortmund in 1997, Chelsea in 2012). But, French clubs have only won
two of their 15 major European finals.
PSG vs
Inter Head-to-Head
When it comes to experience in major European finals, Inter –
who finished second in Serie A this term – have the clear edge.
This is Inter’s seventh appearance in the European Cup/Champions
League final, winning the trophy three times (1964, 1965 and 2010).
They did lose their last final appearance, going down 1-0 against
Man City in 2023, when Guardiola’s team won the treble.
This is PSG’s second appearance in the European Cup/Champions
League final. They remain the last French side to win a major
European trophy – the 1995-96 UEFA Cup Winners’ Cup.
PSG have played the fourth-most games (167) without ever winning
the European Cup/Champions League since it began in 1955, behind
Arsenal (211), Dynamo Kyiv (185) and Atlético Madrid (176). A win
in this game would see them have the most games before winning
their first trophy, with Man City the current most on 116 before
they won their 117th game in the final against Inter in 2023.
It is somewhat surprising, then, that this is the first ever
competitive meeting between Inter and PSG. This final also marks
the first meeting between Luis Enrique and Simone Inzaghi.
Both coaches have overseen 32 Champions League games across
their careers, with Luis Enrique winning 20 matches and Inzaghi
collecting 17 wins.
PSG vs
Inter: Champions League Final Prediction
Inter are unbeaten in their last four matches against French
opponents in Europe (W2 D2) since a 1-0 loss to Marseille in the
2011-12 Champions League last 16.
But the Opta supercomputer is not backing them to continue that
run.
PSG came out on top in 44.6% of the 10,000 pre-match data-led
simulations inside 90 minutes, while Inter did so in 29%. The game
goes to extra-time and potentially penalties in the remaining 26.4%
of sims.
Overall, PSG are the favourites to win the trophy according to
our model, which ranks their chances at 56.6% to Inter’s 43.4%.
PSG vs
Inter: Predicted Lineups
Opta
Power Rankings
The Opta
Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They
assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams.
This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the
worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the
world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday, here are the Opta Power Rankings
for both sides.
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