As Holy Week comes to a close, Warner Bros‘ $90 million-plus net gamble Sinners might find some salvation at the box office, that is in the U.S. and Canada at least, with a potential $40M+ opening.
Note that as far as comps go, Jordan Peele’s sci-fi Nope debuted to $44.3M and legged out to a $123.2M domestic cume. The difference is that Sinners stars quite the leading man in Michael B. Jordan, in his fifth reteam with Ryan Coogler in the director’s chair. Another difference is the budget before P&A, with Sinners costing at least 32% more than Nope‘s net $68M. Sinners was shot in New Orleans with Louisiana film tax credits, and Domain Capital Group covered 10% of the budget as part of its Warners slate deal. Both Sinners and Nope are R-rated, with the former at 2 hours and 17 minutes seven minutes longer than the latter.
Sinners, which Coogler also wrote and produced, is set in 1932 and follows bootlegging and former soldier twin brothers Smoke and Stack (both played by Jordan), who return to their Mississippi hometown to open a juke joint. They do so with success, but all hell breaks loose by the middle of the night.
Previews stateside start at 3 p.m. Thursday. Sinners will have access to Imax 70MM, Imax digital, 70MM, Dolby, PLFs and motion seat auditoriums. First choice is best with guys under 25, followed by men over 25. Both those figures are ahead of Nope and not far from Peele’s Us ($71.1M during pre-Covid 2019).
Overseas is a bit tricky on Sinners, with an overall $60M global outlook. It will play on 16,600 global screens in 71 offshore territories including France, Spain, Germany, Italy, Australia, Brazil, Mexico and the UK.
Thanks to curated film reviews receiving an early break, the Rotten Tomatoes’ critics score now sits at 99% fresh; it was at 100% for a bit. What does that mean? Potential crossover audience beyond the period vampire movie’s core Black audience, with auteur fans (those who flock to the opening weekends of Christopher Nolan’s, Martin Scorsese’s and Robert Eggers’ movies) taking interest as well as upscale metro moviegoers. While tracking projections eased to $35M recently, we’re hearing a last-minute marketing push has pushed Sinners presales ahead of Bad Boys: Ride or Die. That doesn’t necessarily mean that Sinners will open to that film’s $56.5M.
Clearly working in the movie’s favor — as well as for Warner Bros’ own A Minecraft Movie— is Good Friday, a big moviegoing day thanks to 72% of K-12 schools being out and close to a third of all colleges on break.
Piglins in ‘A Minecraft Movie’
Warner Bros
What’s clear is that Warner Bros will be able to own the weekend, with two movies that could conceivably do north of $40M apiece. The Legendary co-production of A Minecraft Movie could ease 40% in its third weekend for a $47M take; the Jack Black-Jason Momoa movie is only $16.2M away from cracking the $300M mark.
While Warners is no stranger to owning the Easter holiday frame with such movies as Batman v. Superman: Dawn of Justice ($166M, still the holiday’s all-time opening record), last year’s Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire ($80M), Ready Player One, Godzilla v. Kong, Fantastic Beasts: The Secrets of Dumbledore and Clash of the Titans, the last time the Burbank, CA lot double-led the Easter frame was 2019, thanks to another horror play The Curse of La Llorona ($26.3M) at No. 1 and the third weekend of Shazam! ($16.4M) in second.
