After taking Thanksgiving off, Black Friday will feature 11 games, all of them part of the NBA Cup.
Only three teams have clinched spots in the quarterfinals, with five more spots left to claim in the games that will be held Dec. 9 and 10. The winner of those games will advance to the semifinals in Las Vegas on Dec. 13, with the championship on Dec. 16.
Here is what is left to determine on the final night of group play. A reminder: Head-to-head results are the tiebreaker within a group, while point differential is the first tiebreaker when considering each conference’s wild card — the best non-group winner — after record.
Eastern Conference
In Group A, the Toronto Raptors (4-0, +55) have clinched the group. The Raptors will be the top seed if the Orlando Magic lose on Friday and the second seed if the Magic win. Regardless, one of the two East quarterfinals will be at Scotiabank Arena.
The Cleveland Cavaliers (2-1, +33) can still win the wild card if they beat the Atlanta Hawks, but will want the Milwaukee Bucks to beat the New York Knicks and Orlando to beat the Detroit Pistons. That scenario would assure the Cavs advance. If Detroit loses but New York beats Milwaukee, Cleveland must win by at least 16 points; if Detroit and New York win, the Cavs must make up 28 points of differential on Orlando.
In Group B, the Orlando-Detroit winner will win the group. The Magic (3-0, +61) will be the top seed if they win, while the Pistons (2-1, +24) will be second or third if they win.
The Magic can still win the wild card if they lose, especially if they lose by a narrow margin. The key numbers are the 28-point margin they have over Cleveland and the 12-point edge they have over the Miami Heat, who are off. If the Magic lose by fewer than 12 and Cleveland wins by fewer than 17, Orlando will be the wild card, barring a staggering blowout win by Milwaukee at Madison Square Garden.
In Group C, the Bucks (2-1, +13) and Knicks (2-1, +26) play each other in an odd elimination — New York can win the group but not the wild card, while Milwaukee can win the wild card but not the group. Miami is off, but the Heat’s fate hinges on these two.
If the Bucks win, the Heat (3-1, +49) win the group, eliminating New York. Milwaukee would have an uphill battle for the wild card unless the Bucks win in a blowout. Most likely, they need both Cleveland and Detroit to lose to claim the wild card.
If the Bucks lose, New York wins the group and would likely be the third seed, although they still could move up to second, while the Heat would remain in wild-card contention. If Cleveland wins by 15 or less or loses, and Orlando either wins or loses by more than 12, then Miami is the wild card.
Western Conference
In Group A, the winner between the Oklahoma City Thunder (3-0, +71) and the Phoenix Suns (3-0, +35) will win the group and likely be the top seed, while the loser has a great chance to be the wild card. The winner between the Memphis Grizzlies (2-1, +9) and LA Clippers (2-1, -15) is the only other team that could win the wild card, and both those teams trail the Suns and Thunder significantly in point margin.
The Los Angeles Lakers (3-0, +36) have won Group B and will likely be the second seed, although they still could be first or third. The winner of the Memphis-Clippers game is alive for the wild card, but would have to win by a wide margin. Given how good the Thunder are this season, the Grizzlies blowing out the Clippers and the Thunder doing the same to the Suns, allowing the Grizzlies to overcome their current 26-point deficit compared to the Suns, is the most likely path toward this group producing the wild card. The Clippers have 44 points to make up on the Suns.
The winner of the game between the Denver Nuggets (2-1, +26) and San Antonio Spurs (2-1, +23) will take Group C. This group’s champ is likely to be the third seed but could move up to second if the Lakers lose. Nobody in this group can win the wild card.
For the 22 teams that do not advance, the league will schedule one home game and one away game during the second week in December. Two of the games will have to be interconference pairings. Typically, the league has scheduled lightweight matchups for these to avoid impacting playoff races. Look for something along the lines of Washington-New Orleans or Indiana-Utah to be part of this year’s slate.
