Domestic box office estimates for this week’s opening of the live-action adaptation of Universal/DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon are between $65 million-$75 million-plus at 4,000 theaters, and don’t be shocked if this beloved title overperforms.
This isn’t Gus Van Sant’s take on Alfred Hitchcock’s Psycho, meaning a shot-for-shot version of the original 2010 movie — and that’s even with original HTTYD architect Dean DeBlois behind the camera. There’s a lot of heart and there’s a lot of flying swoops that set this live-action reboot apart (even if Toothless the Dragon looks similar to his animated version), not to mention Mason Thames and Nico Parker’s respective turns as Hiccup and Astrid; the duo take entire ownership of the characters. No carbon copies here.
Critics on Rotten Tomatoes are 81% fresh; the original animated movie was 99% certified fresh. HTTYD will have all the firepower of PLFs, 4DX, ScreenX and the entire Imax network of 413 screens.
Estimates for the full international opening through Sunday point to the $110M range, with room for upside. That takes the global start for the movie produced by Marc Platt, Adam Siegel and DeBlois to $175M-$185M. The international take includes offshore previews, which will roll up into that number. Through Monday, the previews estimate is $21.8M (see more detail below). HTTYD started significant overseas previews last weekend and begins official rollout Wednesday, with all international box office markets in the mix through Friday save Japan which flies in September 5.
Toothless in ‘How To Train Your Dragon’
Universal Pictures
How to Train Your Dragon is rated PG for kissing. The movie before P&A cost $150M net, shot with tax credits in Ireland.
Stateside previews for How to Train Your Dragon start 2 p.m. Thursday. There’s some question as to how hard the fourth weekend of Lilo & Stitch will eat into Toothless’ take, with the former live-action take of the Disney toon expected to do around $20M in the U.S. and Canada, off 38% week over week. The notion as of this minute is that there’s room for both adaptations of these beloved feature toons.
Lilo & Stitch made $3.6M in its third Monday, with a running cume of $339.2M. HTTYD is big in unaided awareness and first choice with women under 25, through currently pacing behind Lilo & Stitch at the same point in time before its opening.
In February, How to Train Your Dragon‘s Super Bowl spot amassed north of 370M global views on YouTube and yielded the most online engagement of any trailer shown during the game. The official trailer dropped February 12, when it also trended on YouTube and played on such movies as Captain America: Brave New World, A Minecraft Movie and Thunderbolts*. HTTYD trailers to date have clocked three quarters of a billion views to date.
Note that HTTYD has no significant holidays ahead overseas, but European majors love the previous animated movies as does Latin America, especially Brazil and Mexico. Korea and Australia also have a sweet spot for Toothless.
The property is well known in China, where the 2014 and 2019 films released (grossing a combined $120M at historical rates). As per the norm in recent times, the market is uncertain, but the film is leading presales on Friday and Saturday. There are popular HTTYD-themed attractions at the Universal Beijing Resort including a character meet-and-greet and an “Untrainable” show.
In terms of overall comps, it’s not cut-and-dried. If we look at animation to live-action transfers, we’re pretty much in Disney-only territory which is a different beast based on the historical nature of those IPs. Meanwhile, it’s not apples-to-apples to comp the HTTYD toons to a flesh-and-blood update.
And yet, looking at the previews, we can extrapolate overall good news. Direct comps are again ornery since the sneaks include varied amounts of screenings and non-traditional opening days.
Still, here’s a sample of what’s transpired with HTTYD’s early previews overseas: Korea began previews June 6, reaching $4.3M after four days and leading each day, playing across 1,644 screens, including 26 Imax. It has a fantastic 99% CVG Egg score.
UK & Ireland kicked off previews Monday, grossing $1.2M across 1,600 screens (54 in Imax) and at No. 1 on the day with a 41% market share.
Germany on Monday grossed $1.1M in previews across 1,075 screens. France has grossed $1.4M in previews through two days.
Across all of Latin America, HTTYD opened in 1,681 locations. Hiccup’s jump-start in Brazil is $2.7M. Mexico grossed $2.1M in Saturday-Sunday previews this past weekend across 812 screens.
Of the nearly $1.7B overall that the animated franchise has grossed, $1.1B comes from international.
A24
There’s another wide entry and that’s A24’s Materialists from Oscar nominee Celine Song, which currently counts 89% certified fresh with critics on RT. The outlook is $7M-$8M for the feature, which cost around $20M. You want more romantic comedies? You want more movies for women? Well, then here’s an original starring Dakota Johnson as an upscale matchmaker torn between the wealthy unicorn guy, played by Pedro Pascal, and the poor b.f. with a heart of gold, played by Chris Evans. Sony bought foreign on Materialists.
Unaided awareness and first choice is best with women over 25, and just a point behind in each category from Anyone But You. Let’s see where this one goes as it’s a crowd-pleaser with a lot of quotable lines and an ending that will keep women and men debating well after they leave the theater. Materialists is rated R for hanky panky with Pedro. Previews begin at 1 p.m. Thursday.
Lionsgate’s second weekend of From the World of John Wick: Ballerina is looking to be around $11M, off 55%. On Monday, the Len Wiseman-directed movie did $2.05M, taking the running total on the Thunder Road production to $26.5M.
