By Tim Britton, Johnny Flores Jr. and Andy McCullough
Every week, we ask a selected group of our baseball writers — local and national — to rank the teams from first to worst. Here are the collective results.
If there’s one thing that baseball is great at reminding us, it’s that no matter how well-researched and data-backed projections are, they’re just that … projections. Through the first 90 or so games of this year’s campaign, we’ve seen the Braves go from 93.4 percent playoff odds to 6.3 percent, and that actually might be pretty generous considering the state of the team.
The hosts of the 2025 All-Star Game aren’t the only ones who’ve been confronted with the cruel reality that is baseball. Of course, one team’s misery is another team’s benefit, and that’s been the case for the Brewers, who’ve seen their odds of playing in October nearly double since the spring.
If it wasn’t already clear, for this week, we’re looking back at each team’s preseason playoff odds (according to FanGraphs) compared to their current odds entering play on July 7.
Record: 56-36
Last Power Ranking: 1
Preseason playoff odds: 98.0 percent
Current playoff odds: 99.7 percent
It turns out that winning 120 games in a regular season isn’t easy to do. Who knew? Despite a comfortable lead in the National League West, the Dodgers are dealing with a variety of issues. Mookie Betts is scuffling. The Astros just came to Chavez Ravine and trounced them. And the injuries. My goodness, the injuries. Blake Snell has pitched just twice. Blake Treinen hasn’t pitched since April 13. Tyler Glasnow has been out since April 27. Roki Sasaki was a mess before he went down with a shoulder injury. Even the celebration of Clayton Kershaw’s 3,000th strikeout was marred by Max Muncy’s knee sprain. So the Dodgers will spend the second half in a familiar position, wondering which of their injured crew will be available for October. — Andy McCullough
Record: 58-34
Last Power Ranking: 2
Preseason playoff odds: 46 percent
Current playoff odds: 99.6 percent
Coming off a late October push in 2024, the Tigers figured to at least be competitive relative to the AL Central. Instead, they near the second half with the best record in baseball. Sure, it helps to have a bona fide ace in Tarik Skubal pitching every fifth day, but the Tigers have seen massive contributions from up and down the roster all season. Take Sunday’s 7-2 victory over the Guardians, which saw Trey Sweeney, who had been optioned just a week prior and had never homered against a fastball in 356 plate appearances, do just that … homer against a fastball to help open the offensive floodgates against a division rival. Throw in Javier Baéz’s Comeback Player of the Year campaign and Casey Mize’s breakout season, among other developments, and you have the makings of baseball’s most dangerous team. — Johnny Flores Jr.
Record: 53-38
Last Power Ranking: 4
Preseason playoff odds: 72.4 percent
Current playoff odds: 95.8 percent
Some days, the Phillies look like a collection of concerns. The bullpen is still unsettled, the outfield is a bit of a mess, and the lineup just isn’t as potent as you’d think given the names within it. Other days, usually when Zack Wheeler takes the mound, none of that matters, and Philadelphia looks unbeatable. Wheeler is on an extended heater since the start of June, and he’s yielded all of two earned runs in 34 innings over his last five starts (with 47 strikeouts). He’s given up 11 earned runs in two starts against Atlanta this season — and 17 earned runs the other 16 times he’s taken the ball. — Tim Britton
Record: 54-36
Last Power Ranking: 6
Preseason playoff odds: 48.3 percent
Current playoff odds: 94.8 percent
Call it the PCA effect or the brilliance of Kyle Tucker, but the fact of the matter remains the same — the Cubs have nearly doubled their playoff odds and could even challenge for the best record in the National League. That they’ve been able to do this without Justin Steele and only 10 starts of Shota Imanaga is all the more noteworthy. The offense, which has the third-best OPS in baseball, has done a lot of the heavy lifting, but the emergence of Matthew Boyd (2.52 ERA in 18 starts), plus a bullpen that ranks fourth in all of baseball by ERA (3.26) has also gone a long way in solidifying the Cubs as one of baseball’s best teams. — Flores
Record: 55-36
Last Power Ranking: 5
Preseason playoff odds: 52.3 percent
Current playoff odds: 98.1 percent
Well, well, well. Look who is back. These Astros bear a passing resemblance to the club that has ruled the American League for nearly a decade. The uniforms are still the same. The bullpen is still electric. Jose Altuve is still around, although he plays left field now. Yes, the Astros have adapted well after an offseason of upheaval. The Kyle Tucker deal netted Isaac Paredes and Cam Smith, who have added energy and enthusiasm to the lineup. The group has opened up a sizable lead in the American League West. And over the weekend, Houston demonstrated its effectiveness against an old rival. In a matchup that could be a World Series preview, the Astros swept the Dodgers, outscoring their hosts, 29-6. Houston looks dangerous, especially when Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Peña get healthy. — McCullough
Record: 52-39
Last Power Ranking: 7
Preseason playoff odds: 62.4 percent
Current playoff odds: 86.6 percent
The Mets’ odds dipped, though never cratered, during their recent 3-14 stretch. They’ve snapped out of it with four wins in the last five, and it appears they’ve survived the shakiest stretch for their pitching staff. Kodai Senga and Sean Manaea could both be back this weekend, limiting how often New York requires an opener or spot starts — both employed in the series win over the Yankees over the weekend. The lineup has helped pick up the slack, with Juan Soto turning himself into a genuine All-Star snub since the start of June and Brandon Nimmo, who hit two grand slams last week, now on pace for more than 30 homers. — Britton
Record: 49-41
Last Power Ranking: 3
Preseason playoff odds: 63.9 percent
Current playoff odds: 85.6 percent
While the Yankees’ playoff odds remain sturdy, their odds of winning the division have dropped considerably of late, from a peak above 90 percent in late May to just over 36 percent entering Monday. New York is just 7-16 since mid-June, and a lot of that damage has been done in the division. The Yankees lost five of six to Boston and were swept in four in Toronto. Overall, since the start of May, they’re just 4-12 in the AL East, with half those wins coming against last-place Baltimore. — Britton
Record: 53-38
Last Power Ranking: 13
Preseason playoff odds: 43.6 percent
Current playoff odds: 87.7 percent
The Jays’ four-game sweep of the Yankees, part of an eight-game winning streak they carried into Monday, vaulted them into first in the AL East. Toronto started the season 26-28 and has gone 26-10 since heading into this week’s series on the South Side of Chicago. The interesting thing about the Blue Jays’ improvement is, as Mitch Bannon pointed out, it’s coming from many of the same guys who were part of a disappointing 2024. Alejandro Kirk is an All-Star again, George Springer is raking, and Bo Bichette is closer to his old form than whatever he was last year. — Britton
Record: 49-42
Last Power Ranking: 8
Preseason playoff odds: 37.7 percent
Current playoff odds: 68.8 percent
This is a big week for Tampa Bay, which has hit a snag with three straight series losses to teams under .500 in the Orioles, Athletics and Twins. That’s why it was Toronto who leapfrogged the Yankees into first, rather than these Rays. The schedule gets tougher now, with trips this week to Detroit (for three) and Boston (for four). The good news is Tampa Bay just welcomed Ha-Seong Kim back, which should provide some stability in the middle infield and allow some other versatile pieces to move around. — Britton
Record: 51-40
Last Power Ranking: T-11
Preseason playoff odds: 35.4 percent
Current playoff odds: 60.9 percent
At 50-40 entering Monday, the Brewers are firmly in possession of the National League’s second Wild Card spot, largely thanks to a 16-9 run in June, marks only bested by the Astros and Blue Jays. While the offense continues to be middle-of-the-pack, the pitching is, in typical Milwaukee fashion, as stout as ever. Freddy Peralta, who earned his second career All-Star nomination on Sunday, boasts a 2.91 ERA, while Quinn Priester, who was acquired in a throwaway trade with the Red Sox, put up a 1.98 ERA over five games (four starts). Meanwhile, the bullpen just saw the return of DL Hall and Aaron Ashby. — Flores
Record: 48-42
Last Power Ranking: 10
Preseason playoff odds: 32.9 percent
Current playoff odds: 44.7 percent
San Diego went 13-15 in June, which allowed the Dodgers to pull well ahead in the National League West. The team still has a good chance to capture a Wild Card spot and punch another ticket to October. Yu Darvish returned to action on Monday, which should help a starting rotation that has sorely missed him and also Michael King, who has been out since late May with a shoulder injury. With the trade deadline approaching, the Padres have continued to monitor the availability of Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. A deal like that sounds unfathomable until you remember A.J. Preller is involved. We’ll see what happens. — McCullough
Record: 50-42
Last Power Ranking: 9
Preseason playoff odds: 26.2 percent
Current playoff odds: 46.6 percent
Rafael Devers has gotten off to a slow start as a Giant, but have no fear: He’s under contract for another eight seasons after this one. Like San Diego, San Francisco cooled off in May and June, with the Dodgers surging ahead in the division. The Giants will be jockeying with the Padres, Brewers, Cardinals, Reds and possibly the Diamondbacks for Wild Card positioning. It is an excellent outcome for a club that looked more likely to finish in fourth place when the season began. Another excellent three-man race will be the chase for the National League Cy Young award, as Logan Webb tries to outclass Philadelphia ace Zack Wheeler and Pittsburgh wunderkind Paul Skenes. All in all, it’s been a fun summer so far in San Francisco, which is an upgrade over previous years. — McCullough
Record: 48-42
Last Power Ranking: 15
Preseason playoff odds: 60.4 percent
Current playoff odds: 73.3 percent
The Mariners took care of business this past weekend by sweeping the lowly Pirates. After playing sub-.500 baseball in May and June, the sweep was important for Seattle as it embarks on what could be a taxing road trip to face the Yankees and the Tigers. George Kirby logged 6 1/3 innings of scoreless baseball against Pittsburgh on Sunday, continuing a recent stretch of solid pitching as he gets more comfortable coming back from shoulder inflammation. Cal Raleigh swatted two homers on Friday night to extend his lead over Yankees slugger Aaron Judge. The Mariners are in good position in the Wild Card race. — McCullough
Record: 47-45
Last Power Ranking: 19
Preseason playoff odds: 55.0 percent
Current playoff odds: 25.7 percent
The Red Sox have rebounded from their six-game losing streak last month, cruising to a weekend sweep over woeful Washington to get back over. 500 entering a home series with cataclysmic Colorado. We get it: trading your franchise cornerstone in large part because of a failure of organizational communication has a way of sucking the oxygen out of a team. But have you noticed what Ceddanne Rafaela has done? Since May 27, he’s hit nine homers with an OPS over .950. The only players with more wins above replacement since then? Aaron Judge and Cal Raleigh (which, of course, because they’re 1-2 for basically any time period this season). Alex Bregman could be back this week. Those playoff odds feel low. — Britton
Record: 48-43
Last Power Ranking: T-11
Preseason playoff odds: 23.4 percent
Current playoff odds: 32.3 percent
Even after getting routed 11-0 by the Cubs on Sunday, two days after giving up a franchise-record eight homers on the 4th of July, also to the Cubs, the Cardinals remain in the thick of the NL Wild Card race, sitting just one game back of the third and final spot. How the rest of July plays out will dictate what St. Louis and president of baseball operations John Mozeliak do at the trade deadline. If the team continues to spiral, selling seems inevitable, while a dominant July could mean adding reinforcements. Which is to say, set a reminder for 6 p.m. EST on July 31 to see where those odds finally land. — Flores
Record: 45-46
Last Power Ranking: 17
Preseason playoff odds: 60.4 percent
Current playoff odds: 18.8 percent
The offense is one of the best in baseball. The pitching staff has been one of the worst. And so the Diamondbacks are approaching the deadline still unsure how to act. Should the club trade pending free agents like starter Zac Gallen and third baseman Eugenio Suárez? Or should the group hold tight and push for October? The front office would certainly prefer the latter. Arizona entered 2025 expecting to contend. But a major investment in free-agent starter Corbin Burnes has already curdled, and general manager Mike Hazen could recoup a good bit of talent in a seller’s market this month. It’s a real dilemma. — McCullough
Record: 44-47
Last Power Ranking: 18
Preseason playoff odds: 51.5 percent
Current playoff odds: 18.1 percent
Both participants in the 2023 World Series have been confounded by their performances in 2025. The Rangers are the mirror image of the Diamondbacks: Texas’ pitching has been excellent, but their offense has been horrid. The Rangers entered Monday’s games with the best ERA in baseball, a mark supported by the combined excellence of starters Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and Tyler Mahle. But Mahle is hurt, and the lineup just cannot find a rhythm. Texas hoped to contend for the American League West this season. They’ll be lucky if they can sneak into a Wild Card spot now. — McCullough
Record: 46-45
Last Power Ranking: 14
Preseason playoff odds: 20.2 percent
Current playoff odds: 12.8 percent
At 46-44, a Wild Card berth is still in play for Cincinnati, and those odds could look even sharper if the rival Cardinals spiral out and become sellers at the deadline. With Hunter Greene potentially set to begin a rehab assignment soon, the Reds could soon see All-Star snub Andrew Abbott and Greene serving as a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation. A turnaround in health and fortune could also go a long way for Terry Francona’s ballclub. — Flores
Record: 43-47
Last Power Ranking: 20
Preseason playoff odds: 55.5 percent
Current playoff odds: 19.9 percent
Right now, the margin for error in Minnesota is razor-thin. Sitting 14 games back of the Tigers in the AL Central, the division is essentially out of reach, barring a collapse of epic proportions. Which means the Twins will need to secure one of the AL’s three Wild Card spots, a proposition that is easier said than done, considering the competitiveness of the AL East and back-and-forth battle in the West. Still, the fact that the club was able to take two of three against the Rays should provide enough confidence that a Wild Card berth is possible. To get there, they’ll need Carlos Correa and his “clutch” pedigree to show up. Time is starting to run out, though. — Flores
Record: 39-50
Last Power Ranking: 16
Preseason playoff odds: 93.4 percent
Current playoff odds: 6.3 percent
Can we finally, conclusively, permanently bury the 2025 Braves? They’ve lost nine of 11, they’ve fallen behind the Marlins in the NL East, and they’ve lost Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach for extended time. What hope is there?
Look, while we’ve got shovels in our hands, it is worth pointing out that although 6.3 percent is low, it is not nothing. The 2021 Cardinals were at 1.3 percent in August and 2.8 percent in September; they made the playoffs. The 2015 Rangers were at 3.0 percent in late July; they won the division. And most notably, in 2021, Atlanta was only at 7.0 percent to make the postseason in the final week of July; it won the World Series. —Britton
Record: 44-48
Last Power Ranking: 22
Preseason playoff odds: 42.5 percent
Current playoff odds: 9.8 percent
Much like the Twins, the margin for error in Kansas City is non-existent. At 5 games back of the AL’s third and final Wild Card spot, the Royals will need to start stacking up wins and fast. Going 4-3 against the Diamondbacks and Mariners over the last week is a step in that direction, but the team will need to take advantage of six games against the Pirates and Marlins, plus another six at home against the Guardians and Braves, to push those playoff odds closer to reality. — Flores
Record: 41-48
Last Power Ranking: 21
Preseason playoff odds: 24.9 percent
Current playoff odds: 5.8 percent
Entering the 2025 season, the offensively starved Guardians were always going to face an uphill battle in what figured to be a competitive AL Central, particularly after trading away Josh Naylor in favor of signing 39-year-old Carlos Santana. That said, the Guardians are currently marred in their worst offensive season by OPS since 1972. Take away All-Stars José Ramírez and Steven Kwan, and the rest of the lineup is producing a .610 OPS. Having just escaped a 10-game losing streak, the Guardians would need a turnaround of epic proportions to join the October conversation. — Flores
Record: 44-46
Last Power Ranking: 23
Preseason playoff odds: 9.5 percent
Current playoff odds: 3.6 percent
It’s funny, but even though the team’s odds look worse now than they did in March, the Angels have experienced small pockets of success this year. The latest involves outfielder Jo Adell, a former top prospect who has spent half a decade unable to find his footing in the majors. During a 32-game stretch since June 1, Adell posted a 1.014 OPS with 12 homers and 28 RBIs. More encouraging, he produced a .379 on-base percentage during that period. It’s a small sample size for a player who has thrilled fans in small sample sizes before. But what else do Angels fans have to hang onto these days? You have to take hope where you can find it. — McCullough
Record: 40-49
Last Power Ranking: 24
Preseason playoff odds: 45.0 percent
Current playoff odds: 4.1 percent
Thanks to a weekend sweep of Atlanta, the O’s are 21-13 since their low point in late May, and they’re playing the kind of baseball that was expected of them at the start of the season. An optimist can squint and chart a path from 13th in the AL to October, past the mediocre middle of the AL Central and the .500 laggards in the AL West, by Boston in the division to where they only need the Mariners, Blue Jays or Rays to falter to give them a legit chance. A pessimist notes that yeah, that sounds like it has a 4.1 percent chance of happening, and that’s why Baltimore is still poised to sell impending free agents like Cedric Mullins and Ryan O’Hearn at this month’s trade deadline. — Britton
Record: 41-48
Last Power Ranking: 26
Preseason playoff odds: 1.3 percent
Current playoff odds: 0.3 percent
No, the Marlins are not going to make the playoffs in 2025. However, Miami has been a lot better than most anyone — including those staring back in the mirror — expected them to be at the start of the season. Since reaching a low point of 16 games below .500 in mid-June, the Marlins are 15-7. They came into Monday night’s game in Cincinnati riding a nine-game road winning streak, which included sweeps of good teams in the Giants and Diamondbacks. The rebuild Peter Bendix launched after a postseason appearance in 2023 may have looked aimless to outsiders — again, looking in the mirror here — but it’s on surer footing than the more conventional one stagnating in Washington. — Britton
Record: 38-54
Last Power Ranking: 25
Preseason playoff odds: 20.3 percent
Current playoff odds: 0.1 percent
After a 1-0 loss to the Mariners on Sunday, a game in which Paul Skenes struck out a season-high 10 batters, the 2025 Pirates became the first team in MLB history to win three straight shutouts and then lose three straight, also by shutout. Entering Monday, the team hadn’t scored in 28 straight innings, and the offense as a whole ranks at or near the bottom in nearly every major category. Given Skenes’ continued brilliance, it’s easy to see why there was even the faintest projection of an October appearance. Given the offense’s continued struggles, it’s also easy to see why those odds vanished. — Flores
Record: 37-55
Last Power Ranking: 28
Preseason playoff odds: 12.1 percent
Current playoff odds: 0.1 percent
A collapse in mid-May shifted the narrative around this season from “spunky upstarts with intriguing position-player core” to “intriguing group handcuffed by poor infrastructure.” Yes, the Athletics are struggling at Sutter Health Park. The team entered Monday with a 16-29 record at home. Only the Rockies play worse in their own park, and they might be the worst baseball team of all time. Unlike the Rays, who could return to Tropicana Field next season, the Athletics will have to play at least two more seasons in Sacramento. The opening act has not been pretty. — McCullough
Record: 37-53
Last Power Ranking: 27
Preseason playoff odds: 2.9 percent
Current playoff odds: 0.1 percent
Imagine making one of the great prospect trades in baseball history and getting fired the day two of those lottery tickets formally make the All-Star team. Mike Rizzo and Dave Martinez are out, and Washington’s rebuild is on the cusp of requiring deeper excavation. What exactly is the plan and the timeline here now? The Nationals have done nothing around the core of James Wood, C.J. Abrams and MacKenzie Gore — literally, the rest of the roster is barely above replacement level — and now might be starting over again. — Britton
Record: 30-61
Last Power Ranking: 29
Preseason playoff odds: 0.1 percent
Current playoff odds: 0.0 percent
Yeah, but at least we’re not the Rockies. — Some White Sox fan somewhere
— Flores
Record: 21-70
Last Power Ranking: 30
Preseason playoff odds: 0.1 percent
Current playoff odds: 0.0 percent
There’s always next year. — McCullough
(Photo: Geoff Stellfox / Getty Images)
