Final 2025 NHL Mock Draft: Matthew Schaefer Projected No. 1, Surprises Could Follow

Editor’s note: This mock draft has been updated to reflect a trade between Montreal and the Islanders on Friday.

The Athletic has live coverage of the 2025 NHL Draft.

This is my final projection for the first round of the 2025 NHL Draft. This is my best guess as to what I think will happen tonight. I stress these are guesses. At times, I have information on what I believe certain teams may do, and that information is shared below, but ultimately, nobody can know except the handful of decision-makers for those organizations.

I don’t like to comment on trade speculation around the draft in general. I find that 99 percent of the time, it’s a waste, and most speculated moves never happen. However, I feel compelled to make a certain point today about the New York Islanders. We feel there’s a strong chance Matthew Schaefer will be their pick (and if he isn’t, then the rest of what I’m about to say is moot).

Over the last few days, there’s been an extremely popular sentiment among fans, media, and even within some NHL teams, that the Islanders will attempt to make a major move to acquire another high pick to select James Hagens, a childhood Islanders fan from Long Island. That suggestion, frankly, is ridiculous and is not how any competent professional sports organization should be run. Moving for a major asset like a top-10 pick has significant long-term implications, and feel-good stories should not dictate those decisions. Maybe if it’s truly close on their board, it can be a factor (and even if they got another high pick, Hagens may not even be the player they have rated the highest).

That rant aside, here is how I think tonight could go.

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Schaefer to the Islanders is highly likely, based on league chatter. I wouldn’t fall off my chair if they went in a different direction, such as picking Michael Misa, but my chair would rattle.

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Brandon Soto / OHL Images

The intrigue starts early. Presuming Schaefer goes 1, the Sharks will have a decision to make. The league thinks Schaefer has been their guy all year. The league also thinks they are high on both Misa and Djurgarden center Anton Frondell. My best information is they will lean toward the slightly more dynamic Misa, but Frondell is very much in play here, and is very appealing due to his hard, well-rounded game down the middle. I would not be surprised if they called his name.

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Natalie Shaver / OHL Images

The Blackhawks would jog up to where they’re planning to announce their pick if Misa were still on the board. Otherwise, I think it would be between Frondell, Caleb Desnoyers and Porter Martone here. I could absolutely see Desnoyers as the pick, but it feels like the league views Frondell as the likelier selection for Chicago.

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Steven Ellis / Daily Faceoff

There’s been significant buzz with Utah on Brady Martin. I think that’s a major possibility as well as Jake O’Brien or Porter Martone here. My bet, though, is that they will opt for the great all-around center in Desnoyers. Martin is super likable and his rise is legit, but Desnoyers is such a well-rounded center.

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David St. Louis / Moncton Wildcats

I would be surprised if Nashville came out of this draft without a center at this pick, although several people in the league think the Predators are very high on Martone. I think they likely go Desnoyers if he’s available at 5, otherwise my bet is between Martin and Roger McQueen for them. McQueen bears some risk at 5, but Nashville did a lot of background work on him, and GM Barry Trotz was quoted this week saying he thinks McQueen could be a No. 1 center.

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Natalie Shaver / OHL Images

Like Nashville, I think the Flyers would be hard-pressed to get a center here (and you notice this creates a scenario where Martone continues to be available). The league consensus is that the three centers they are likeliest to take are Martin, Hagens or O’Brien. Hagens is a great player, but it would be three years in a row they would be taking a small forward, so that’s why the league thinks O’Brien and Martin are very much in play at 6.

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Eric Canha / Imagn Images

Here’s the post-combine recap on McQueen: Teams have mild reassurances on his season-long back injury. His camp is telling people that not playing much was precautionary, and he was misdiagnosed with a disc issue that was later revealed to be a stress fracture that is completely healed. Some teams are not completely convinced, though. McQueen still missed games twice after coming back late in the season, and the Cayden Lindstrom situation lingers in the background even if McQueen’s injury does seem less severe than Lindstrom’s, as he wasn’t having the nerve issues Lindstrom did.

Turning to Boston, if Martone is available at 7, I believe they would seriously consider him and that he is on their short list. Like the teams picking ahead of them, though, I believe they would prefer to come out of this center-heavy draft with a center. I do believe they are very high on McQueen. O’Brien and Radim Mrtka are the other two names I’ve heard the most often with Boston.

If McQueen doesn’t go here, I’m at a bit of a loss for his landing spot. I’m not sensing a ton of interest in the league to roll the dice on him with a high pick.

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Jeremy Champagne / Brandon Wheat Kings

Seattle would probably like to walk out of this draft with a defenseman such as Mrtka, Kashawn Aitcheson or Jackson Smith, given its system is so light on defensemen. I think there are too many scenarios that play out, though, where the Kraken will be squeezed to take a forward. They can’t pass on Martone to take Mrtka, and if someone like Hagens, O’Brien, McQueen or Martin were here, the clear BPA is likely still a forward.

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Natalie Shaver / OHL Images

After several years of drafting smaller, skilled, speedier forwards, I do think Buffalo is likely to target some toughness/size with the No. 9 pick. Quite a few people in the league think Mrtka, Martone, McQueen, O’Brien and Aitcheson would be heavily in the mix. In this mock scenario, it would likely be between Mrtka and O’Brien for the Sabres.

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Brian Liesse / Seattle Thunderbirds

I think Anaheim would be thrilled with this scenario and a chance to get one of the premium forward prospects. The Ducks have their top two centers of the future, but O’Brien could easily flex to the wing. I think Mrtka is a high possibility here, too, if all the top forwards are gone.

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Brandon Taylor / OHL Images

Pittsburgh, with a rare high draft pick, we think will try to add some size and toughness into its system. That would lend itself to one of the defensemen in this group in Smith, Mrtka or Aitcheson or possibly McQueen if he were still here at 11. Smith is the most purely talented of the defenders, with legit mobility and skill to go with his large frame.

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Portland Winterhawks

The Penguins walk away with two potential top-four defensemen and one with a special compete/physicality trait in Aitcheson. If they decided to go with a forward, I would envision Justin Carbonneau or Carter Bear to be in the mix here.

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Terry Wilson / OHL Images

Carbonneau has been a name I’ve heard with Detroit in the draft leadup. Carbonneau has legit NHL speed and power in his game to go with a high level of skill. He and Carter Bear fit heavily into what Detroit tends to target, and the league is very high on both. I do think if one of the defensemen gets to 13, however, they would be squarely in the Red Wings’ wheelhouse. I’ve heard some Cole Reschny rumors to them as well.

Team

Blainville-Boisbriand

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Sebastien Gervais / CHL

In an ideal world for Columbus, one of the top defensemen gets to 14. That scenario feels unlikely, though. So, whether it’s Bear, Carbonneau, Victor Eklund or Braeden Cootes, chances are they walk out with a forward.

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Caroline Anne / Everett Silvertips

I think chances are good that Vancouver walks out of this pick with a center. Braeden Cootes, Reschny and Jack Nesbitt have been the names I’ve heard linked here but I’ve heard Nesbitt more in the last week. He’s a huge center with great skill and some tenacity but he has very heavy feet as well.

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Natalie Shaver / OHL Images

With their first of back-to-back picks, the Islanders jump at Eklund, who slid to this range due to size concerns. He’s an excellent skater and competitor, though, who has scored at a high level versus men.

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Steven Ellis / Daily Faceoff

The Islanders pick Cootes with their next selection. He’s a hard to play against two-way center with more offense in his game than his point totals suggest.

Kyle Smutzki

Reschny would add a lot to the Flames’ system. He’s a high-end, skilled forward, which their prospect pool lacks. Even if he’s not that big or fast, there are only minor questions about whether he sticks at center in the NHL. I could see Bear or Cootes as possibilities here, too.

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Kevin Light / Victoria Royals

I think all the defensemen in the next group should be in this conversation, such as Logan Hensler and Sascha Boumedienne, but Reid is the player the league is highest on, and there’s been some connection to St. Louis as well.

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Natalie Shaver / OHL Images

Presuming Columbus doesn’t get a defenseman at 14, I would be a little surprised if it didn’t get one at this pick. Hensler, Reid and Boumedienne would be the obvious candidates.

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Steven Ellis / Daily Faceoff

The Senators land the highly toolsy Lakovic, who’s a tall winger with legit NHL caliber speed, hands and goal-scoring ability, but struggled with consistency this season. I could see this as a possible landing spot for Cootes or Nesbitt as well.

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Nick Pettigrew / Moose Jaw Warriors

Horcoff’s stock has been on the rise in recent months, and I expect him to be a first-round pick. His skating is an issue, but Horcoff is a huge forward with legit skill and hockey sense.

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Michigan Photography

Nashville adds a quality defenseman prospect here, which is an area that, outside of Tanner Molendyk, it is light on. Boumdienne’s a great skater with size and enough puck-moving ability. Henry Brzustewicz and Blake Fiddler are also possibilities here.

BU Athletics

Lee was a top player in the USHL this season, showcasing great skill, hockey sense and goal-scoring ability. His skating is an issue, but the Kings have shown they’ve been willing to take guys with skating issues if they check all the other boxes. Lee has been connected to the Kings, and they’ve expressed a desire to move down publicly, so it wouldn’t surprise me if they trade back and still take him.

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Steven Ellis / Daily Faceoff

Chicago likes to target forwards with a high level of speed and compete, and Prokhorov checks those boxes with emphasis. Milton Gastrin, Bill Zonnon, Vaclav Nestrasil or Malcolm Spence could be possibilities here, too.

Team

Dynamo St. Petersburg

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Maksim Konstantinov / Getty Images

Nashville is expected to add a goalie in this draft. Ravensbergen is the top goalie prospect in this year’s class, and 26 would be a prime spot to address that need. If the Predators aren’t high on him, though, they could wait until the second round to address the position.

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James Doyle / Prince George Cougars

Fiddler is a big right-shot defenseman with good mobility and hands, and a solid compete level, even if he’s not a natural puck-mover. Washington could consider a center like Gastrin here as well.

Andy Devlin / CHL

Gastrin is a highly competitive center who has been the leader of his Swedish age group. He has legit speed and skill as well. He provides much-needed center depth to Winnipeg’s system.

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Steven Ellis / Daily Faceoff

Carolina tends to bet on talent. Potter is the most dynamic talent left with high-level skating and offensive skill, although he’s on the smaller side. I could see Benjamin Kindel as a possibility here as well.

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Rena Laverty / USA Hockey’s NTDP

San Jose wants to get tougher to play against and draft high-effort players, and the Sharks achieve that by taking Spence, who’s also a solid skater and puck handler.

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Brandon Soto / OHL Images

Philadelphia takes a swing on the highly talented Zharovsky with its last pick in the first round. Zharovsky is a very skilled forward with good skating and looked quite big when I saw him at the Gold Star camp this past week. There’s significant interest in the league for him.

Calgary picks Nestrasil with its second first-round pick. His stock went up sharply toward the end of the season. He’s a huge forward who can skate and showed enough skill in the second half to make teams think he’s a middle-six winger.

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Courtesy Muskegon Lumberjacks

(Illustration: Demetrius Robinson / The Athletic; photos of Roger McQueen, Matthew Schaefer, Anton Frondell: Leila Devlin, Michael Miller / ISI Photos, Jonathan Kozub / Getty Images)

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