Lightning has struck many times for Marvel Studios at the box office before Kevin Feige‘s superhero studio went through some turbulent times in recent years. Now comes another chance.
Later this week, Thunderbolts* kicks off the summer box office in a pivotal moment for the Marvel Cinematic Universe. Directed by Jake Schreier, the film brings together a band of dysfunctional outsiders — and lesser-known comic book characters — who discover their potential to be heroes when working together.
Tracking suggests the movie will open in the $70 million to $73 million range domestically, and $160 million to $175 million globally, against a $180 million production budget before marketing. Prior to the pandemic, that would have been considered not so great for an MCU title kicking off summer. But times have changed, with tracking becoming more unreliable. Also, the Disney-owned Marvel is stressing these aren’t well-known characters.
If word-of-mouth is strong, all bets are off. The unexpected spring bloom currently underway at the box office — led by Ryan Coogler’s sleeper sensation Sinners — proves that people want the communal experience of watching a film together.
Not long ago, year-to-date box office revenue was lagging badly behind the same corridor in 2024. Then two weekends ago, revenue was up by 2 percent. Now it’s up more than 11 percent.
Thunderbolts*‘ ensemble cast features Florence Pugh (Yelena Belova), Sebastian Stan (Bucky Barnes), Wyatt Russell (John Walker), David Harbour (Alexei Shostakov/Red Guardian), Lewis Pullman (Bob), Hannah John-Kamen (Ghost), Olga Kurylenko (Taskmaster) and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (CIA director Valentine Allegra de Fontaine).
“Florence Pugh and Sebastian Stan lead a gratifyingly fresh and soulful Marvel adventure,” The Hollywood Reporter chief critic David Rooney writes in his review. “While a handful of the characters and the actors playing them have appeared in previous entries, there’s a disarming freshness to this first-time assembly, not to mention something even more unexpected: heart. That’s due to an appealing ensemble cast but also to the new blood of a creative team with a distinctive take on the genre.”
In a December 2023 interview, Russell teased to THR that Thunderbolts* would not be your tried-and-true Marvel superhero film, and it’s now come to light that the film is genuinely about mental health. Louis-Dreyfus’ villainous character has positioned a number of MCU loners and rejects to kill each other for her own nefarious reasons. But they instead decide to team up in response to the obvious setup and to newcomer Bob, who suffers from a mental illness that has catastrophic consequences after he’s subjected to cruel experimentation.
As this story went to press, the pic’s critics score on Rotten Tomatoes was a promising 89 percent fresh with only 98 reviews posted. When the embargo broke earlier in the day, it was initially 92 percent, and the score is certain to continue to fluctuate. As a way of comparison, Captain America: Brave New World had a rotten score of 48 percent yet opened to $88.8 million earlier this year. And last July, Deadpool & Wolverine was a record-setting win for Marvel, opening to $211 million.
There’s no audience score since Thunderbolts* doesn’t begin hosting previews in North America until Thursday night before opening everywhere Friday. Overseas, it opens around the globe midweek, including in China.
Last year, Universal’s The Fall Guy kicked off the summer box office over the May 1-3 weekend to $28.5 million.
