Belgium is demanding that the guarantees exceed the total value of the EU loan and extend beyond the expiry of the Russian sanctions package — and will continue to push for this during the technical negotiations in Council. In further reassurance to Belgium, the Commission will set up a “liquidity mechanism” that can lend money to governments to ensure that the guarantees can be paid out at a moment’s notice.
The EU’s next seven-year budget will take over from national guarantees from 2028, and shoulder the burden through its “headroom,” a financial cushion that ensures Brussels can meet its obligations.
How will the EU keep the Russian assets frozen?
The biggest legal hurdle facing the proposal is the prospect of the assets being unfrozen if pro-Russia countries refuse to keep existing sanctions in place. Under current rules, the EU must unanimously reauthorize the sanctions every six months. That means Kremlin-friendly countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, can force the EU to release the sanctioned money with a simple no-vote.
The Commission suggested a legal fix that would make this scenario less likely. It aims to trigger a clause in Article 122 of the EU treaty that could make it illegal to return the assets to the Kremlin. The clause is legally uncertain and hinges on the argument that reversing the sanctions would wreak havoc on Europe’s economy. The Commission is confident that it can trigger this legal clause by a qualified majority.
Does this affect the peace deal with Russia?
De Wever claimed last week that the Commission’s proposal would derail a peace deal in Ukraine by removing leverage that might encourage Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table. But von der Leyen played down the argument, saying that the reparations loan will instead ramp up the pressure on Russia.
“It is a very clear message … to Russia that the prolongation of the war on their side comes with a high cost for them,” she said, adding that the proposal “will contribute positively to the peace negotiations.”
For Ukraine, meanwhile, the scheme would strengthen its negotiating position, ensuring it was not entering peace talks while facing a cash crunch. “It is a leverage that makes it very clear that we are in for the long haul with Ukraine,” she said.
Hanne Cokelaere contributed reporting from Brussels.
