Each Sunday, three of The Athletic’s NFL writers react to the biggest news, plays and performances from the day’s games.
As of this writing, the top seeds in the NFC and AFC playoffs are the Chicago Bears and the New England Patriots. Could it be a Super Bowl Shuffle rematch, 40 years after the Bears beat the Patriots?
Why not, after a Week 13 in which heavyweights such as the Los Angeles Rams, Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens all lost, while the once-high-flying Indianapolis Colts fell to the Houston Texans, creating a jumble atop the AFC South. And don’t look at the AFC North, where the Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for first — at 6-6.
NFL writers Mike Jones, Ted Nguyen and Dan Pompei share their thoughts on a Week 13 in which playoff races tightened as the season’s home stretch approached.
After a strong start, the Steelers have now lost five of their past seven games and could barely move the ball in Sunday’s 26-7 loss to the Buffalo Bills. What’s gone wrong, besides Aaron Rodgers getting injured?
Jones: There’s a lot wrong with the Steelers’ offense, but topping the list is the lack of a consistent, explosive downfield pass catching threat. DK Metcalf entered the week averaging 13.6 yards per reception, 26th in the league, and he hasn’t been a consistent chain-mover either, producing just 28 first-down receptions, 31st in the league. The Steelers didn’t have another pass catcher in the top 75 in the NFL in receiving yards (tight end Pat Freiermuth was 97th with 298 yards). Pittsburgh’s decision to trade George Pickens to Dallas looks worse and worse as the season goes on. He has 1,142 receiving yards and eight touchdowns for the Cowboys, which is more than Pittsburgh’s wide receiving unit as a whole. He had issues with maturity and professionalism in Pittsburgh, and the Steelers didn’t want to reward Pickens with a rich contract extension. But they certainly miss his production. The other big issue involves Pittsburgh’s offensive line, which struggles both in run blocking and pass protection. So, that’s why they can’t move the ball well, even against a weaker defense like Buffalo’s.
Pompei: The Steelers exemplify the NFL’s mushy middle. They get after the passer but don’t do anything else particularly well. They also aren’t incompetent enough in any area to the point of not being unable to compete with most teams. We shouldn’t forget they have quality wins against the Patriots and Colts, so the Steelers are not a pushover. A healthy Rodgers would go a long way to making the Steelers a playoff contender. Rodgers may no longer be a quarterback his team can win because of, but he absolutely is a quarterback his team can win with. He has not been at his best, however, since the season opener.
Nguyen: Even when the offense was playing better, the Steelers had very little margin for error. Rodgers was already averse to taking hits before the wrist injury and was getting rid of the ball faster than any other quarterback. That can work when you have a favorable game script, but when the Steelers needed to throw downfield, Rodgers wouldn’t — unless he got wide open opportunities. The defense was predictable and got exposed early in their downturn. Coach Mike Tomlin made some adjustments and that side of the ball has played better lately, but the offense has been so bad that it hasn’t mattered. Though Tomlin may still be a great motivator and culture-setter, the game may have passed him by.
Mike Vrabel of the Patriots and Ben Johnson of the Bears, the coaches of the current top seeds in the AFC and NFC, are the betting favorites for Coach of the Year. Who’s your pick as of today?
Pompei: So many good choices. Beyond Vrabel and Johnson, there are Todd Bowles, Dave Canales, Liam Coen, Sean Payton, Kyle Shanahan, Shane Steichen, and maybe Brian Schottenheimer if the Dallas Cowboys remain on their trajectory. The winner will be decided in December. But as of now, Johnson should be in the lead. His staffing, leadership, messaging, player evaluation, player development, game planning and play calling have been outstanding. The Bears’ mentality has completely changed, and it’s a reflection of their head coach. What’s more, Johnson’s absence has been felt in Detroit as much as his presence has been felt in Chicago.
Bears coach Ben Johnson has Chicago atop the NFC after an upset win over Nick Sirianni’s Philadelphia Eagles. (Mitchell Leff / Getty Images)
Nguyen: This is such a close race between several deserving candidates. Mike Macdonald has the Seattle Seahawks playing like a machine, Sean McVay has the Rams playing as good as they have in his tenure, and Shanahan has the San Francisco 49ers in the playoff picture despite several devastating injuries. The job Johnson has done with the Bears has been remarkable. The offense went from one of the worst in the league to one of the most explosive, in one season.
I’ll give the nod to Macdonald though. The Seahawks’ defense is the best in the league, and his decision to move on from Ryan Grubb and hire Klint Kubiak as his offensive coordinator has been one of the most impactful of the season. The Seahawks are true contenders, and Macdonald got them there in his second season.
Jones: Kyle Shanahan. Yes, Johnson has infused the Bears with life, and he’s helping Caleb Williams develop into a franchise quarterback. And yes, Vrabel has quickly restored the Patriots into a first-class unit. But Shanahan — despite multiple stints without his starting quarterback and despite losing a plethora of other difference-makers for the season, including defensive stars Fred Warner and Nick Bosa — still having his team in the playoff hunt is most impressive. Any other team would have crumbled. But Shanahan and his staff keep on plugging in replacement players and positioning them for success.
After the Texans upset the Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars dominated the Tennessee Titans, the AFC South now has three teams within a game of each other. Who’s your pick to win the division?
Pompei: The Texans are the most interesting and best team in the division at the moment, with four straight wins including Sunday’s victory over the Colts. They arguably have the league’s best defense, which is a good thing to have in December. If they could get C.J. Stroud playing like he did in 2023, they almost assuredly would be the South’s best. We shouldn’t sleep on the Colts, but they are showing how difficult it is to sustain a superior level of play over 17 games. The season finale between the Colts and Texans will decide the division.
Jones: I’m going with the Jaguars. Despite the maddening inconsistencies that plague Trevor Lawrence, Liam Coen’s team has a lot working in its favor. The Jaguars have one of the league’s leading rushing attacks. They have an opportunistic defense, which ranks among the league leaders in takeaways. And their remaining schedule plays out pretty favorably. They have two games (Weeks 14 and 17) against the sagging Colts, who have now lost three of their last four. They also play the New York Jets (which should be another win), travel to Denver (the toughest test remaining) and close out the season against Tennessee. Houston is surging with four straight wins but might come up short in its pursuit of the Jaguars. Indianapolis isn’t the same with Daniel Jones hobbled, and the Colts have a mean final stretch (with games against the Seahawks and 49ers and another game against Houston, plus two against Jacksonville) and seem primed for a dream-killing fizzle.
C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans are in the thick of the AFC South race after upsetting the Indianapolis Colts. (Dylan Buell / Getty Images)
Nguyen: I thought the Colts could shift their identity into a defensive team with cornerbacks Charvarius Ward and Sauce Gardner locking down receivers, but Gardner was hurt early on Sunday and the Texans were able to create enough explosive plays in the pass game to win. Jones was already falling back to earth before his leg injury, but with his mobility hindered, this Colts offense will be limited. They played an elite Texans defense Sunday, so we’ll see if they can get on track against the Jaguars.
Both the Texans and Jaguars seem to be getting it together at the right time. The Texans’ offense has limitations, but they’re getting chunks in the passing game. If that continues, and with that defense, I think they have a shot at taking the South.
Just when we all crowned the Rams the best team in the NFL, they looked unsteady on both sides of the ball in a 31-28 loss to the Carolina Panthers. Did that shake your faith in Los Angeles as the Super Bowl favorite?
Nguyen: The Rams were playing such good, consistent ball that they were bound for a letdown. I don’t want to take away from the Panthers. They deserve a ton of credit for winning the game, and their offensive line — even with injuries — owned the Rams up front. The three biggest plays in this game were Matthew Stafford’s two interceptions (one in the red zone and a pick six) and his fourth quarter fumble. Stafford had only thrown two interceptions before this game. I don’t think we’ll see too many games in which Stafford is as careless with the ball, so I’m not concerned with the Rams moving forward.
Jones: Every now and then, a quality team has one of those uncharacteristically bad performances and loses to a team it had no business struggling against. That’s what happened to the Rams on Sunday. Stafford threw two interceptions after enjoying a record-setting streak of 28 touchdown passes without an interception. He then had a fumble that snuffed out the Rams’ chances for a game-winning drive. L.A.’s defense also appeared flat and gave up too many big plays, failing to record a takeaway for the first time in five games. Hats off to the Panthers for their performance, but I still believe in the Rams. They’ll get this game out of their system and will probably use it as a wakeup call before gearing up for a strong finish to the season and a deep playoff run.
Pompei: Perhaps the Lombardi Trophy was awarded a bit too early? The Rams had an excellent run and remain one of football’s best. But it’s a long season and most teams slip up here and there, as the Rams did Sunday. We can’t forget the Rams have a number of quality wins, having beaten the Texans, Colts, Ravens, Jaguars, 49ers, Seahawks and Tampa Bay Buccaneers, among others. They will be defined by how they play in December and January, and — they hope — February. This appears to be one of those wide-open seasons in which no clear Super Bowl favorites can be established. We are likely in for some wild surprises.
The Panthers, Lions and Cowboys all have between a 22 and 30 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s Playoff Simulator. Whose chances do you like best?
Pompei: Over the previous two seasons, the Lions won 20 more games than the Panthers and eight more than the Cowboys. It would be foolish to read too much into the past, but what we can be sure of is the Lions know how to win. They have struggled at times this season to replicate the formulas that served them well in the past, but they remain the best team of this trio, all things considered. The Cowboys have the most momentum, but there are five weeks that could change that. What we don’t know is how all three teams will change over the stretch run, so for now the bet is on the Lions.
Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers are still in the playoff chase after upsetting the Los Angeles Rams. (Grant Halverson / Getty Images)
Nguyen: The Panthers look to have the easiest remaining schedule and an upcoming bye week to get healthy, but they’ve been up and down all season. They can drop a game to the New Orleans Saints after winning over the Packers at Lambeau Field, and then beat the Rams a few weeks later. I’m not sure if I can trust them down the stretch. The Cowboys’ offense is one of the most well-designed systems in the league, and it’s hard stopping their two alpha receivers, CeeDee Lamb and Pickens. Their defense has improved after trading for Quinnen Williams, but there are still major holes in their secondary. They have a pretty favorable schedule after they play the Lions next week. This is a cheap answer, but I think whoever wins that game will make the playoffs.
Jones: The Panthers have surprised me, and they do have two stunning upsets against the Rams and Packers, leading Super Bowl contenders. But they’re far too inconsistent. I don’t see them overtaking the Buccaneers for the NFC South title. I feel like Detroit is probably the most well-rounded of these three longshot playoff hopefuls, but catching the Bears and the Packers, who already have the season sweep, could prove challenging. Dallas is intriguing, having reeled off three straight wins and showing improvement on defense thanks to reinforcements added at the trade deadline and the healthy return of some key players. And the way that Philadelphia is looking as of late, the Cowboys just might have a shot at winning the division. So, I’ll give my nod to Dallas.
Yes, it was against the Browns, but the battered 49ers somehow keep winning and are now 9-4 after a 26-8 victory in Cleveland. Could they actually be dangerous in the playoffs, despite all the injuries?
Jones: I do think the 49ers could be dangerous. Because of everything they have been through, I view them as extremely battle-tested. They have proved they can go toe-to-toe with the best of them. They have already split games with the Rams and they have a win over Seattle. They’re a well-rounded, well-coached team, despite a lack of star power on defense because of all of the injuries that they have suffered. Many of their core players have significant playoff experience, and experience really matters when you get to the postseason. So, I won’t count out the 49ers.
Nguyen: It really depends on how much Brock Purdy can continue to heal from the turf toe injury that caused him to miss six weeks. He’s scrambling less, it doesn’t look like he can drive the ball, and his arm strength was already limited before the injury. This offense needs to be elite to make up for all of the defensive injuries, and it won’t be until Purdy is closer to his old self. This team had a lot of playoff experience and brilliant coaches. Shanahan and defensive coordinator Robert Saleh will be difficult to coach against in the playoffs, but for it to matter, Purdy has to be better.
Pompei: Injuries as significant and numerous as the 49ers have endured tend to show up over time, if not immediately. Shanahan and Saleh have hidden San Francisco’s weaknesses so well up to now. It will get harder, but some teams have survived wipeouts. The 2001 Patriots, 2010 Packers and 2011 New York Giants even won Super Bowls despite injury lists that argued their chances were nil. For the 49ers to keep winning, they will need Christian McCaffrey to play better than other teams’ stars, and they will need Purdy to throw clutch passes and lead game-winning drives. It won’t be easy for the 49ers, but they have something special in them.
