BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) investors may wish the company were enjoying the same explosive momentum as Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR). After all, BigBearAI is working to carve out its role in the same arena, targeting both government and commercial clients with its AI-enabled solutions.
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Yet, the gap between the two companies remains substantial. BigBearAI’s market cap of $2.36 billion, Q3 revenue of $33.1 million, and ongoing lack of profitability stand in stark contrast to Palantir’s $369 billion market cap, $1.18 billion in Q3 revenue, and $476 million in Q3 net income.
But could BBAI be on its way to replicating Palantir’s success story? Not by a long shot, says top investor Robert Izquierdo.
“BigBear.ai’s current performance suggests it won’t mirror the lofty gains achieved by Palantir stock,” explains Izquierdo, who is among the top 2% of stock pros covered by TipRanks.
First and foremost, Izquierdo points to the diverging sales of the two companies during the last quarter. While Palantir soared by 63% year-over-year to notch its second-straight billion-dollar quarter, BBAI’s sales fell by 20%.
It wasn’t just this past quarter, either, as Palantir has been steadily flying higher while BBAI’s revenues have been trending downward throughout the past few years. BBAI has felt some pain during the current year due to government budget cuts, especially related to programs it has with the U.S. army.
Palantir, on the other hand, has seen its fortunes trend in the opposite direction, with U.S. government sales jumping by 52% last quarter.
“This suggests Palantir’s solutions were considered important for the government to maintain, while the same cannot be said about BigBear.ai’s offerings,” Izquierdo opines.
The lack of profits is another concern, notes Izquierdo, especially since BBAI’s net losses have increased in 2025.
That being said, the investor does note that there are some glimmers of hope on the horizon. The company recently announced the acquisition of Ask Sage, a genAI platform with 100,000 users on 16,000 U.S. government teams, which Izquierdo deems a positive development.
If Ask Sage hits its projected annual recurring revenue of $25 million in 2025, that would represent a sixfold increase from 2024. That could help BBAI “turn a corner.”
In other words, a breakthrough for BBAI could eventually come, sums up Izquierdo. It’s just not on the near-term horizon.
“If its sales growth accelerates and profitability is achieved, perhaps in time, it can get there,” Izquierdo summed up. (To watch Izquierdo’s track record, click here)
As for Wall Street, sentiment is muted. Only two analysts have weighed in over the past three months: one with a Buy rating and one with a Hold. That mix gives BBAI a Moderate Buy consensus rating, while the average 12-month price target of $6.50 points to potential upside of 20%. (See BBAI stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured investor. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.
