Red Sox vs. Yankees MLB Wild Card predictions, odds, best bets by model

A trip to the American League Division series is on the line when the Boston Red Sox meet the New York Yankees in Game 3 of their Wild Card Series on Thursday. Boston won the opener 3-1, before New York earned a 4-3 victory on Wednesday. The Red Sox (89-73), who finished third in the AL East, are 42-41 on the road, including the postseason. The Yankees (94-68), who were second in the division, are 51-32 on their home field in 2025. The series winner will face Toronto in the American League Division Series.

First pitch from Yankee Stadium in New York is set for 8:08 p.m. ET. The Red Sox have won 10 of 15 against the Yankees this season. New York is a -159 favorite on the money line (risk $159 to win $100) in the latest Red Sox vs. Yankees odds from DraftKings Sportsbook, with the Red Sox as +133 underdogs. The total number of runs Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over-under, is 7.5. Before making any Yankees vs. Red Sox picks, be sure to see the MLB predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model. 

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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the 2025 MLB playoffs a profitable 34-29 on top-rated MLB money-line picks this season. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 35 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Red Sox vs. Yankees and just locked in its picks and MLB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Here are several MLB odds and betting lines for Yankees vs. Red Sox:

Why the Yankees can win

Right-hander Cam Schlittler (4-3, 2.96 ERA) is expected to take the mound for New York. The 24-year-old started 14 games this season, pitching 73 innings and allowing 58 hits and 31 walks, while striking out 84. He won three of his last four decisions, including a 6-1 win over the Baltimore Orioles on Saturday. In that game, he pitched seven innings, allowing two hits, no runs and one walk with nine strikeouts.

Among the Yankees’ offensive leaders is right fielder Aaron Judge. In 152 regular-season games this season, Judge hit .331 with 30 doubles, two triples, 53 home runs and 114 RBI with 137 runs scored. He is 4-for-8 in the series with one RBI. Judge enters Game 3 with a seven-game hitting streak. In an 8-1 win over the Chicago White Sox on Sept. 24, the AL MVP candidate was 3-for-4 with two homers and four RBI. See which team to back at SportsLine.

Why the Red Sox can win

With Lucas Giolito out for the rest of the year, Boston is expected to start rookie left-hander Connelly Early (1-2, 2.33 ERA). The 23-year-old was called up in September and has been impressive. In four starts, he has logged 19.1 innings, allowing 17 hits, six runs – five earned – with four walks and 29 strikeouts. In a 2-1 loss to the Detroit Tigers on Saturday, he pitched five innings, allowing four hits, two earned runs and one walk, while striking out seven.

Shortstop Trevor Story has been on fire and is 4-for-9 in the series, including a homer and three RBI. The 10-year veteran had a solid regular season. In 157 games, he batted .263 with 29 doubles, 25 homers, 96 RBI and 31 stolen bases. He has hits in seven of the past nine games. In Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, he was 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBI and one run scored. See which team to back at SportsLine. 

How to make Red Sox vs. Yankees picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the total, projecting 9.6 runs, and it says one side of the money line has all the value. You can head to SportsLine to see the model’s MLB picks. 

So who wins Yankees vs. Red Sox, and which side of the money line has all the value? Visit SportsLine now to see which side you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its MLB picks, and find out.